- 1d (daily)Timeframe
- OvernightRisk
- Hard dailyDeadline
- BTC /
ETH / SOL / XRPAssets
A 5-minute market resolves before you finish a coffee. A daily Up/Down market lives overnight, through thin hours and a full session of spot moves, before its hard deadline. That longer life makes it behave differently, and the daily snapshots let you study exactly how.
Daily-expiry markets sit at the opposite end of the spectrum from the 5-minute books. They accumulate a whole day of information, span the quiet overnight window, and only converge late. The result is a distinct settlement profile worth understanding before you trade them.
What makes daily markets different
Overnight thinness
Through low-activity hours, books thin and spreads widen, moving size overnight costs more than at peak.
- Thin overnight depth
- Wider off-peak spreads
- Liquidity has a clock
Slow convergence
With a full day to run, odds drift with spot rather than snapping, then commit only as the deadline nears.
- Gradual repricing
- Spot-led drift
- Late commitment
Accumulated information
A day’s worth of news is in the price by the close, the market has had time to digest, not just react.
- Full-session context
- Less knee-jerk
- Richer fair-value debate
Questions the data can answer
- How early does a daily market commit to a side, versus staying genuinely two-sided?
- How much does the overnight liquidity drought widen spreads, and when does depth return?
- How closely does the implied probability track the spot reference stamped on each snapshot through the day?
- Do daily markets gap at the session boundary, and how often do those gaps fill?
How a daily market converges to 0 or 1
A daily Up/Down market is settled on a single rule: the winning side pays 1, the losing side pays 0. The mid-price is therefore the market’s live estimate of probability, and the whole life of the contract is that estimate walking from somewhere near 0.50 toward one of the two corners. Watching that walk frame by frame, against the spot reference stamped on every snapshot, is how you separate a market that committed early from one that stayed honestly undecided until the close.
- ~0.50Open, genuinely two-sided, little information yet
- DriftMidday, odds track spot, depth rebuilds
- CommitLate session, one side firms as the deadline nears
- 0 /
1Settlement, winner pays 1, loser pays 0
A daily market is a probability estimate with a hard deadline. Its value to a researcher is that you can watch the estimate resolve, and check, after the fact, whether it was calibrated.
Reading the snapshot fields into settlement
Mid-price as probability
mid_price nets best bid and best ask into the market’s implied odds, the series you track from open to close.
- 0..1 probability units
- Walks toward a corner
- Compare to realised outcome
Depth and spread
bid_depth_total, ask_depth_total, and spread show when the book thins overnight and firms back up.
- Overnight thinness visible
- Spread as a cost proxy
- Conviction in the ladder
Spot reference, stamped
crypto_price and crypto_price_age_ms tie each snapshot to spot, so you can test how tightly odds track the underlying.
- Spot on every snapshot
- Staleness flagged in ms
- Odds-vs-spot tracking
Study a full batch of resolved days
Because resolved markets remain in the archive rather than disappearing from the live feed, you can study settlement behaviour across hundreds of past daily markets, not just whatever happens to expire today. That batch is what separates a pattern from a single anecdote.
Dig into daily markets
The crypto data page covers the daily timeframe; replay a resolved day in the dashboard to watch it settle.
Frequently asked questions
How do daily-expiry markets differ from 5-minute ones?
Daily markets live for a full 24 hours, so they span thin overnight hours, accumulate a whole session of information, and converge gradually rather than snapping. That gives them a distinct settlement profile, wider off-peak spreads, slower spot-led drift, and late commitment, compared with the rapid 5-minute books.
Can I study how past daily markets resolved?
Yes. Resolved markets stay queryable in the archive, so you can pull snapshots across hundreds of past daily markets and study how their odds and liquidity behaved into settlement, without being limited to whatever is live right now.
Is the daily timeframe available for all coins?
Yes. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP each have daily (1d) Up/Down markets alongside the 5m, 15m, and 1h timeframes, all captured with full order-book depth.
How do I read the implied probability into settlement?
Use mid_price, which sits between 0 and 1 and represents the market’s implied probability that the Up side wins. Over the day it drifts toward 0 or 1; at settlement the winning side pays 1 and the loser pays 0. Because each crypto snapshot also carries a spot reference (crypto_price plus crypto_price_age_ms), you can check how tightly the odds tracked the underlying as the market converged.