Economics Markets

Economics prediction market data — FOMC and Nonfarm Payroll

Every FOMC meeting and every monthly Nonfarm Payroll release lists as a discrete-outcome market on Polymarket — "25 bp cut" vs "50 bp cut" vs "hold", or NFP printing inside specific bands. Resolved Markets captures these markets event-driven at ~0.5 Hz, with millisecond-precision timestamps so you can study minute-by-minute repricing during the announcement and press conference.

Last updated:

  • FOMC · NFPActive markets
  • ~0.5 HzCapture rate
  • MillisecondTimestamp precision
  • UnlimitedHistorical retention
Get an API keySee pricing

How this differs from rates instruments

Fed Funds futures and traditional whisper numbers are derived from sell-side estimates and rates instruments — useful, but indirect. Polymarket prediction markets price the discrete outcomes directly with skin in the game from anyone holding USDC. The Resolved Markets feed gives you the orderbook depth behind those discrete-outcome probabilities, sampled at ~0.5 Hz with full history. Pair the two and you get a fast cross-check on how the rates market and the prediction market disagree on the same announcement.

Example — FOMC announcement replay

# Find the active FOMC markets
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/live?category=economics" \
  -H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.markets[] | {slug, question, condition_id}'

# Pull every snapshot from 14:00:00 UTC (2pm ET = announcement) to 15:00:00 UTC
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/<condition_id>/snapshots?from=2026-04-29T18:00:00Z&to=2026-04-29T19:00:00Z" \
  -H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.snapshots[] | {t: .capture_timestamp, mid: .mid}'

Use cases

  • Event-study research. Reconstruct intraday repricing around every FOMC and NFP since coverage began. No retention cliff — older meetings are still queryable.
  • Cross-asset spread. Compare prediction-market implied probabilities against rates futures, treasuries, and FX in the same window.
  • Macro AI agents. Wire the MCP server into a research assistant and ask "what was the prediction-market probability of a 25 bp cut 30 minutes before the December FOMC?"

Frequently asked questions

Which economic indicators are covered?

FOMC rate decisions (every meeting) and Nonfarm Payroll release markets (every monthly print). Markets list as soon as Polymarket publishes them and resolve at the official BLS / Federal Reserve announcement.

How does this differ from Fed Funds futures or NFP whisper numbers?

Fed Funds futures and traditional whisper numbers are derived from sell-side estimates and rates instruments. Polymarket prediction markets are open to anyone with USDC and price the discrete outcomes (e.g. 25 bp cut vs 50 bp cut) directly. The Resolved Markets feed gives you the orderbook depth behind those discrete-outcome probabilities, sampled at ~0.5 Hz with full history.

Can I see how the market moved during the press conference?

Yes — every snapshot is timestamped to the millisecond. Pull /v1/markets/:id/snapshots with from and to bracketing the announcement to reconstruct minute-by-minute (or finer) price movement around the event.

What tier do I need?

Scale ($49/mo) and Enterprise ($549/mo) include economics markets. Free and Pro are crypto-only and exclude economics.

How much history is available?

Every tier has unlimited history — there is no 31-day retention cliff and no 24-hour cap. Every snapshot ever captured is queryable, including markets resolved years ago, for longitudinal research.

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