Weather Markets

Weather prediction market data API

Polymarket runs ~30 weather-themed markets at any given time: daily high-temperature contracts for major cities, hurricane and named-storm markets, and longer-horizon climate markets like Arctic ice extent and annual record temperatures. Resolved Markets captures every event from each token's orderbook into ClickHouse with full bid/ask depth and unlimited history — and weather is included on the Free tier.

Last updated:

  • ~30Active weather markets
  • 0.2–0.5 HzCapture rate
  • IncludedFree tier
  • Unlimited (paid)Historical retention
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Why weather prediction-market data matters

Polymarket weather markets are a near-pure source of probabilistic forecasts priced by people with USDC at stake. They sit upstream of three useful signals:

  • Forecast benchmark. Compare GFS / ECMWF / proprietary model outputs against a market that prices the same outcome — the spread is a quick read on model confidence.
  • Energy-trading nowcast. Heat-wave and cold-snap markets move ahead of NWS official advisories during volatile periods. Power and gas desks watch them as a sentiment overlay.
  • Climate research. Long-horizon markets (annual records, Arctic ice) provide forward-looking pricing for climate questions that traditional surveys cannot price discretely.

Pull a weather market

# List active weather markets
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/live?category=weather" \
  -H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.markets[] | {slug, question}'

# Live orderbook for one market
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/<condition_id>/orderbook" \
  -H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '{up_bid: .up.best_bid, up_ask: .up.best_ask}'

# Historical snapshots
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/<condition_id>/snapshots?limit=500" \
  -H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.snapshots[0]'

Frequently asked questions

Which weather markets are covered?

Approximately 30 markets across daily city-temperature contracts (NYC, LA, Chicago, etc.), hurricane / named-storm markets, and longer-horizon climate markets (Arctic ice, annual temperature records). All resolve from official sources (NWS, NOAA).

Why would anyone want weather prediction-market data?

Weather markets are a near-pure source of probabilistic weather forecasts priced by people with skin in the game. Researchers use them to benchmark model forecasts, energy-trading desks watch them around heat waves and cold snaps, and quantitative climate research treats them as forward-looking sentiment data.

Is weather available on the Free tier?

No — Free and Pro are crypto-only. Weather (and sports, economics, social, equities) starts on the Scale tier ($49/mo). The Free tier covers all crypto coins with 300 req/min, unlimited history, and full bid/ask depth.

How frequently are weather markets captured?

Weather markets trade slower than crypto, so capture is typically 0.2–0.5 Hz per token (event-driven, not polled). Every change in the orderbook is captured; idle markets simply produce fewer snapshots.

Do you provide the underlying weather forecasts?

No — Resolved Markets provides only the prediction-market orderbook data. For raw NWS/NOAA forecasts, use those agencies directly. Resolved Markets pairs naturally with forecast feeds for spread analysis.

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