Weather prediction market data API
Polymarket runs ~30 weather-themed markets at any given time: daily high-temperature contracts for major cities, hurricane and named-storm markets, and longer-horizon climate markets like Arctic ice extent and annual record temperatures. Resolved Markets captures every event from each token's orderbook into ClickHouse with full bid/ask depth and unlimited history — and weather is included on the Free tier.
Last updated:
- ~30Active weather markets
- 0.2–0.5 HzCapture rate
- IncludedFree tier
- Unlimited (paid)Historical retention
Why weather prediction-market data matters
Polymarket weather markets are a near-pure source of probabilistic forecasts priced by people with USDC at stake. They sit upstream of three useful signals:
- Forecast benchmark. Compare GFS / ECMWF / proprietary model outputs against a market that prices the same outcome — the spread is a quick read on model confidence.
- Energy-trading nowcast. Heat-wave and cold-snap markets move ahead of NWS official advisories during volatile periods. Power and gas desks watch them as a sentiment overlay.
- Climate research. Long-horizon markets (annual records, Arctic ice) provide forward-looking pricing for climate questions that traditional surveys cannot price discretely.
Pull a weather market
# List active weather markets
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/live?category=weather" \
-H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.markets[] | {slug, question}'
# Live orderbook for one market
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/<condition_id>/orderbook" \
-H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '{up_bid: .up.best_bid, up_ask: .up.best_ask}'
# Historical snapshots
curl -s "https://api.resolvedmarkets.com/v1/markets/<condition_id>/snapshots?limit=500" \
-H "X-API-Key: rm_your_key" | jq '.snapshots[0]'Frequently asked questions
Which weather markets are covered?
Approximately 30 markets across daily city-temperature contracts (NYC, LA, Chicago, etc.), hurricane / named-storm markets, and longer-horizon climate markets (Arctic ice, annual temperature records). All resolve from official sources (NWS, NOAA).
Why would anyone want weather prediction-market data?
Weather markets are a near-pure source of probabilistic weather forecasts priced by people with skin in the game. Researchers use them to benchmark model forecasts, energy-trading desks watch them around heat waves and cold snaps, and quantitative climate research treats them as forward-looking sentiment data.
Is weather available on the Free tier?
Yes — weather is one of two free-tier categories alongside BTC. Free tier gets 60 req/min, 24-hour history, and the same full bid/ask depth as paid tiers.
How frequently are weather markets captured?
Weather markets trade slower than crypto, so capture is typically 0.2–0.5 Hz per token (event-driven, not polled). Every change in the orderbook is captured; idle markets simply produce fewer snapshots.
Do you provide the underlying weather forecasts?
No — Resolved Markets provides only the prediction-market orderbook data. For raw NWS/NOAA forecasts, use those agencies directly. Resolved Markets pairs naturally with forecast feeds for spread analysis.