- FOMC ·
NFPEvents - Event studyMethod
- Before ·
at · afterWindow - Scale +
Tier
Few events have a release time as precise as an FOMC rate decision or a nonfarm-payroll print, the number lands at a scheduled minute, and the markets pricing it react in the seconds around it. That precision makes them an ideal event study: bracket the release, watch the spread blow out as makers step back, watch it recover as the new number settles, and watch bracket markets reshuffle their probabilities across the outcomes.
Economics data sits on the Scale tier and above. These markets reprice in a tight window around a scheduled release, which is exactly the setup an event study wants: a known time to align on, a clear before and after, and an outcome that grades the move. The honest framing holds throughout, we capture the order book’s reaction, not the data release itself, and settlement is Polymarket’s.
The release window, in three acts
Before, makers brace
In the minutes ahead of the print the spread widens and depth thins as makers pull size rather than be caught on the wrong side.
- Spread widens
- Depth pulls
- Defensive quoting
At, the blow-out
On release the touch can gap hard as the book reprices to the new number, the widest, thinnest moment of the whole window.
- Sharp gap
- Peak spread
- Fastest move
After, recovery
Once the number is public and symmetric, quotes tighten and depth rebuilds toward the pre-event baseline.
- Spread tightens
- Depth returns
- Back toward calm
Bracket markets reshuffle
These releases often trade as bracket markets, rate cut, hold, or hike for an FOMC decision; ranges of jobs added for payrolls. Each bracket is its own market with its own book, so the release doesn’t just move one probability, it redistributes weight across the whole set. Studying them together shows the market collapsing a spread of possibilities onto the one that printed, with the brackets that lose probability mirroring the ones that gain it.
- spreadBlows out at release, recovers after
mid_priceEach bracket’s implied probabilitybid_depth_totalask_depth_totalDepth that thins into the printevent_timestampAlign brackets on the release minute
Running the event study
- 1Take the scheduled release time and bracket it with a pre-event and post-event window across all the related bracket markets.
- 2Pull the snapshots for each bracket and align them on event_timestamp so they sit on the release minute together.
- 3Track spread and depth against each market’s own pre-event baseline through the before, at, and after phases.
- 4Aggregate across many FOMC and payroll releases so the blow-out-and-recovery shape stands out from one noisy print.
We capture the book, not the print
The boundary is the same one that keeps every event study clean. We record the order book’s reaction around the release, spread, depth, the brackets reshuffling, not the economic data itself, and the final grading is Polymarket’s resolution. The before-and-after you measure is the market processing the number, which is the thing worth studying and is honestly all the book can show.
Reading it without overclaiming
- The peak-spread moment marks where the book was most uncertain, not the exact instant the data crossed, capture rate on economics is slower than crypto, so report it.
- Recovery time is a useful efficiency measure: how long until the book returns to its baseline tells you how cleanly the number was absorbed.
- Bracket reshuffling is most legible when you align all brackets on one clock, so weight leaving one and arriving at another is visible side by side.
- One release is anecdote, the blow-out-and-recovery pattern is only a finding once you’ve stacked many on a common event-time axis.
A payroll print lands at a known minute, and the book around it tells the story in three acts, brace, blow out, recover. The release time is the axis; the spread is the plot.
Study a release window
See economics coverage and the tier it needs, or work through the storage and gap-detection workflow for event studies.
Frequently asked questions
Why are FOMC and payroll markets good for an event study?
Because the release lands at a precise scheduled minute, giving you a clean time to align on and a clear before and after. You bracket the release, track spread and depth through the brace, blow-out, and recovery phases, and grade the move against the outcome that printed.
What are bracket markets and why do they matter here?
These releases often trade as a set of brackets, rate cut, hold, or hike; ranges of jobs added, each its own market with its own book. The release redistributes probability across the whole set, so studying them together shows the market collapsing many possibilities onto the one that occurred, with losing brackets mirroring the gaining ones.
What tier do I need for economics data?
Economics sits on the Scale tier and above, alongside sports, weather, social, equities, and Hyperliquid exchange data. The free and Pro tiers focus on crypto markets.
Does the data show me the actual economic number?
No, we capture the order book’s reaction around the release, not the data release itself, and settlement comes from Polymarket’s resolution. The before-and-after you measure is the market processing the number, which is what the book can honestly show. Note too that economics captures slower than crypto, so report the rate alongside any timing claim.