- 5m ·
15m · 1h · 1dTimeframes - Per snapshotResolution clock
- 0-1 probabilityPrice units
- Stamped per recordSpot price
A 5-minute BTC Up/Down contract has a brutally clear deadline: at the bell, BTC is either above the strike or it is not, and the contract settles at 1 or 0. The interesting part is the path, how the implied probability behaves on the way to that certainty. With per-snapshot timestamps and spot stamped on every record, that path is measurable rather than anecdotal.
This is a research piece, so the standard applies: every claim should be a number you could reproduce, and we are explicit about what the data can and cannot tell you.
The shape of convergence
Line up every snapshot of a market against its countdown to resolution and a consistent shape emerges. The implied probability hugs the middle while the outcome is genuinely uncertain, then snaps decisively toward 0 or 1 in the final stretch as spot drifts away from the strike. The number worth measuring for your own strategy is the crossover, how late the market stays "uncertain" before it commits.
Mid-life: undecided
While the outcome is genuinely uncertain, the implied probability hovers near the middle and barely commits either way.
- Odds near 0.5
- Two-sided book
- Low conviction
Final stretch: the snap
As spot drifts away from the strike, the probability moves sharply toward 0 or 1, the market making up its mind in seconds.
- Decisive move
- Spot-driven
- Crossover point
We capture the book, not the oracle
Crypto contracts are captured at roughly 20 Hz, so the final-second path is densely sampled, but the literal settlement print comes from Polymarket, not from us. For convergence studies that distinction matters: we can show you exactly how the odds moved, right up to the edge of resolution, and we say plainly where our record ends.
Finding the crossover point
The single most useful number in a convergence study is the crossover, the moment the market stops sitting on the fence and commits to an outcome. Pin it down by lining each snapshot up against its countdown to resolution and tracking when the implied probability leaves the undecided middle and heads decisively for 0 or 1. Do that across many markets and the crossover stops being one anecdote and becomes a distribution you can reason about.
event_timestampWhen Polymarket emitted the changecapture_timestampWhen we processed it, latency, no lookaheadmid_priceThe implied probability you are trackingcrypto_priceSpot reference stamped on every recordcrypto_price_age_msHow fresh that spot read was- ~20 HzSampling density into the final seconds
Because spot is stamped on every record alongside the odds, you are not guessing why the market moved, you can line the implied probability up against BTC drifting toward or away from the strike and see the two move together.
Why the path matters for trading
Late entries
If the market stays near the middle until very late, there is a window to trade a directional spot read the book has not fully priced.
- Identify the crossover point
- Compare odds to spot drift
- Act before the snap
Spread blow-out
As certainty rises, market makers widen. Liquidity that was there at minute one may be gone at the last second.
- Depth thins into the bell
- Wider spreads near resolution
- Size against real depth
Settlement risk
A contract at 0.95 is not 1.00. That gap is the market pricing the chance spot whips back across the strike.
- “Decided” isn’t settled
- Tail risk is priced
- Mind the last-second flip
That is the whole point of keeping the history: a question about how markets behave becomes something you can chart and defend, not an opinion you have to take on faith.
Studying it across many markets
One market is a story; hundreds of markets are a finding. The convergence shape only earns trust when it holds across a large basket of resolved contracts, and that is precisely where keeping closed markets queryable pays off, you are not limited to whatever happens to be live the day you look.
No survivorship bias
Closed and expired markets stay in the archive, so a batch study samples the full population, not just the survivors.
- Query resolved contracts
- Full snapshot history kept
- Sample hundreds of markets
Aligned by countdown
Re-index every market on its time-to-resolution and the individual paths stack into one comparable curve.
- Common time axis
- Per-snapshot clock
- Compare like with like
Across timeframes
Compare how 5m, 15m, 1h, and 1d contracts converge, the snap is sharper the shorter the clock.
- 5m · 15m · 1h · 1d
- Different convergence speeds
- One method, four regimes
Replay a market for yourself
Step through a resolved market snapshot by snapshot in the Replay Terminal, or read how point-in-time and time-range queries expose the path.
Frequently asked questions
What does the price represent in a Polymarket Up/Down contract?
The price of an outcome token is the market’s implied probability of that outcome, between 0 and 1. A BTC UP token at 0.62 means the market prices a 62% chance BTC finishes above the strike at resolution. At settlement the winning side pays 1 and the losing side 0.
How frequently are snapshots captured near resolution?
Crypto markets are captured event-driven at roughly 20 Hz per token, throttled to a 50 ms minimum interval, so the final seconds before resolution are densely sampled. That density is what makes a convergence study possible, you can watch the implied probability move in near-real time as the clock runs down.
Can I study markets that have already closed?
Yes. Closed and expired markets remain queryable, we preserve the full snapshot history rather than dropping it when a market leaves the live feed. That lets you build batch studies across hundreds of resolved markets without survivorship bias from only sampling what happens to be live.
What is the crossover point and why does it matter?
The crossover is the moment a contract stops sitting near the undecided middle and commits decisively toward 0 or 1. It matters because it marks the boundary between the window where a directional read can still be priced in and the stretch where the market has effectively made up its mind. Because every snapshot carries both a resolution countdown and the spot price, you can locate that crossover precisely and compare it across many markets rather than eyeballing a single chart.